My Take On 2010 Technology Predictions OS Wars

In my first post I talked about the platform wars, today I want to talk about the Operating Systems (OS) Wars.

There are really only three operation systems on the market people will generally know; Microsoft Windows, Apple Mac OS X, and Linux. There are a couple of operating systems that are getting some buzz, but most people don't know they are using them, or don't recognize the fact they are operating systems. These are mobile or light weight OS's, like Google's Chrome OS, Android, Windows Mobile, iPhone, and Palm Pre.

Desktop Operating Systems
Hands down the winner will remain the Windows, specifically, Windows 7. Personally I've been using Windows 7 for a few months now, written several blog posts on it, and can say it's just as stable as Windows XP. Sorry non-windows fan boys, but it is.

Next up will continue to be Apple's Mc OS X. The real issue most people have with the Mac OS is that it will only run on Apple hardware. Many have tried, some have succeeded, but most fail to run the Mac OS on anything other than an Apple computer. The cost for Apple computers typically keeps the average user from purchasing, and so never get an opportunity to use Mac OS X. Snow Leopard, the latest version, 1.6, is a fantastic operating system. It has all the bells and whistles you could want. But at least in 2010, it will stay behind Windows, and I don't think Apple cares one bit.

Finally we have Linux. A real geek operating system. This system isn't for the faint at heart. While distros (that's what a version of Linux is called, a distro, or distribution package) from Ubuntu and Red Hat slip in consumer features such as a graphical user interface, pre loaded applications, and the ability to manage various hardware features, you still have to have some technical understand of computers, and how to use command line tools.

Personally, I like Linux. I think it's a solid operating system that stands up to the most rigorous user. But in the coming year for desktop operating systems, Windows 7 will take even a wider market share.

Mobile Operating Systems
As I stated above, several new mobile operating systems will make some waves. I know a lot of geeky friends will want the Google phone to take over the world, it just won't. There needs to be a lot of baking before that phone will make a huge dent. You will see lot's of hype, but just as the iPhone hasn't succeeded in world domination, neither will the Google phone. But it will be cool to see what happens. What I'm hoping Nexus One does, with it's unlocked phone (meaning it's not keyed to any service provider) is to push the major manufactures to lower their prices for unlocked phones. People want choices, which is what Nexus One will give them. That will be fun to watch.

The net result of the OS War in 2010 will be negligible. Operating systems have become boring. As long as it's stable, doesn't require continual reboots, market shares will remain the same. Companies who produce operating systems make a huge capitol investment, and it takes several years, if ever, to recoup their costs. The average consumer is also averse to change. Updates are considered to be an annoyance, imagine having to upgrade the entire OS every couple of weeks.

I think the next big thing for operating systems will be slimmed down versions built specifically for an application. Linux does this, Chrome could do this. This will be the disruptive play; targeting hardware and applications. It's happening now I understand, but it will get even more specific over the next year or two.

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My Take On 2010 Technology Predictions Part 1

My good friend Kip Meacham asked his fellow propeller heads what they thought about Mark Anderson predictions he gave for 2010 in this video interview with BusinessWeek. Some the predictions I agree with, and others I don’t. I’m breaking this up into a 5 part series, giving my take on Marks 10 predictions for 2010. Here are my thoughts:

Platform Wars
There are more technology options for consumers today than ever before. I really think the three big ones to watch next year will Netbooks, Smart Mobile devices (phones like Android and iPhone), and eBook readers (like the Amazon Kindle).

• Netbooks are so cheap, you can almost look at them as disposable computers. With sizes around 10 inches, they almost fit in your pocket. Enough memory and storage to perform basic computing tasks, you can almost get away with using nothing but a Netbook. There are plenty of hacks out there to help you find all the online services you could need, for free, or very cheap.


• Smart Mobile Devices, the one device people are never more than a few feet away from these days, will really start to change the mobile computing landscape this next year. Retailers and web site that sell products, really need to step up to the plate and offer mobile versions of their site, with complete e-commerce. This technology is available now, it just needs to be implemented. Don’t miss this huge opportunity.


• eBook Readers like the Kindle have come on the market very strong. The Kindle isn’t the only player, in fact I don’t care for the physical device, but I am very excited about their iPhone and PC software versions. Other players in this market will need to catch up.

While smaller devices should increase their market share in the coming year, there is a lot of infrastructure that needs to catch up. One of those is e-commerce and micro payments which I’ll cover in another part of this series.

Another issue is always on Internet access. Today you can get 3G wireless Internet access on Smart Mobile devices, PC or phone, but at a hefty cost. More and more places are offering free or cheap Internet access, like the local coffee shop or library.

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Amazon Adds Media Streaming, Spot Instances, and VPC Cloud Services

Amazon AWS just keeps getting better and better. Today the company announced three new services to it’s AWS product line.

Amazon CloudFront Streaming
This new services gives you a world class media server in the cloud. You can now stream media files, audio and video, from a server using Adobe Flash Media Server. As with all Amazon AWS services, this is a pay for what you use, no upfront costs to start and no minimums.

CloudFront puts your files on the networks edge, delivering your content quicker, which is a great benefit when streaming audio or video files. No need to spend thousands on hardware and software.

Amazon EC2 Spot Instances
This is an interesting concept, your basically given the opportunity to bid on unused EC2 capacity. Minimum prices are set for the unused capacity, called a Spot Price, and as long as your bid doesn’t exceed that Spot Price, you can continue to use the service. I’m probably not doing it justice here, so read more about it.

Because this service may not be available for an extended period of time, suggested uses for this option would be video processing and conversion, processing research data, or modeling or analyzing data. There is some risk for data loss when using EC2 servers in this manner. You will need to make sure your price is high enough that your instance isn’t turned off in the middle of processing data.

Amazon VPC Unlimited Public Beta
This is probably the most exciting feature of the three. VPC stands for Virtual Private Cloud (similar to Virtual Private Network or VPN). It’s a standard used by companies allowing users and networks to connect with each other securely. Now the cool part. You can extend your current companies IT infrastructure into isolated Amazon compute resources via VPC, instantly adding secure private capacity to your existing infrastructure. You can also use your existing management tools to safeguard the server while on your network.

This is a hot new feature. It’s worth taking some time to review the options. If your organization often meets or exceeds existing resources, this could be an incredibly cost effective option to increase capacity, and maintain total control as if the servers were on your own network.

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Welcome DigitalThom Subscribers

Welcome to those of you who had been subscribed to my digitalthom site. Lot’s of nifty stuff going on here, more to come.

I really wanted to write more on this post, but it just isn’t going to happen.

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KnockingLive Is A Killer iPhone App In 2009

[... I had written about two thirds of this post on my iPhone using the WordPress app, while I was sitting at the bar in a Chilis restaurant. I saved the post as a draft, but when I tried to reload the post to finish, all the content was gone. All of it. This is the second or third time the WordPress app for the iPhone has failed me. I won't make that mistake again. I'm finding something else. Is there something else? Evernote?]

The killer iPhone apps just keep getting better and better. Yesterday I introduced you to the Ustream Broadcaster iPhone application. Today it's KnockingLive. The KnockingLive's approach is a little different. It uses the same technology to capture video, the iPhones camera view, but adds the ability to share video with a specific user or users. That's right, you can stream private video to other iPhone users. And the other users even get a "knock knock" on their phone when you want to share something.

There is also an incredible sister app that allows you to share photos, or albums, and the receiving phone can choose to save the photos to their local phone. Wow. I'll about this one next.

One thing this company has done is create a website that shows you how to use the features in several scenarios via videos. Very cool.

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