My Take On 2010 Technology Predictions OS Wars

In my first post I talked about the platform wars, today I want to talk about the Operating Systems (OS) Wars.

There are really only three operation systems on the market people will generally know; Microsoft Windows, Apple Mac OS X, and Linux. There are a couple of operating systems that are getting some buzz, but most people don't know they are using them, or don't recognize the fact they are operating systems. These are mobile or light weight OS's, like Google's Chrome OS, Android, Windows Mobile, iPhone, and Palm Pre.

Desktop Operating Systems
Hands down the winner will remain the Windows, specifically, Windows 7. Personally I've been using Windows 7 for a few months now, written several blog posts on it, and can say it's just as stable as Windows XP. Sorry non-windows fan boys, but it is.

Next up will continue to be Apple's Mc OS X. The real issue most people have with the Mac OS is that it will only run on Apple hardware. Many have tried, some have succeeded, but most fail to run the Mac OS on anything other than an Apple computer. The cost for Apple computers typically keeps the average user from purchasing, and so never get an opportunity to use Mac OS X. Snow Leopard, the latest version, 1.6, is a fantastic operating system. It has all the bells and whistles you could want. But at least in 2010, it will stay behind Windows, and I don't think Apple cares one bit.

Finally we have Linux. A real geek operating system. This system isn't for the faint at heart. While distros (that's what a version of Linux is called, a distro, or distribution package) from Ubuntu and Red Hat slip in consumer features such as a graphical user interface, pre loaded applications, and the ability to manage various hardware features, you still have to have some technical understand of computers, and how to use command line tools.

Personally, I like Linux. I think it's a solid operating system that stands up to the most rigorous user. But in the coming year for desktop operating systems, Windows 7 will take even a wider market share.

Mobile Operating Systems
As I stated above, several new mobile operating systems will make some waves. I know a lot of geeky friends will want the Google phone to take over the world, it just won't. There needs to be a lot of baking before that phone will make a huge dent. You will see lot's of hype, but just as the iPhone hasn't succeeded in world domination, neither will the Google phone. But it will be cool to see what happens. What I'm hoping Nexus One does, with it's unlocked phone (meaning it's not keyed to any service provider) is to push the major manufactures to lower their prices for unlocked phones. People want choices, which is what Nexus One will give them. That will be fun to watch.

The net result of the OS War in 2010 will be negligible. Operating systems have become boring. As long as it's stable, doesn't require continual reboots, market shares will remain the same. Companies who produce operating systems make a huge capitol investment, and it takes several years, if ever, to recoup their costs. The average consumer is also averse to change. Updates are considered to be an annoyance, imagine having to upgrade the entire OS every couple of weeks.

I think the next big thing for operating systems will be slimmed down versions built specifically for an application. Linux does this, Chrome could do this. This will be the disruptive play; targeting hardware and applications. It's happening now I understand, but it will get even more specific over the next year or two.

read more...

My Take On 2010 Technology Predictions Part 1

My good friend Kip Meacham asked his fellow propeller heads what they thought about Mark Anderson predictions he gave for 2010 in this video interview with BusinessWeek. Some the predictions I agree with, and others I don’t. I’m breaking this up into a 5 part series, giving my take on Marks 10 predictions for 2010. Here are my thoughts:

Platform Wars
There are more technology options for consumers today than ever before. I really think the three big ones to watch next year will Netbooks, Smart Mobile devices (phones like Android and iPhone), and eBook readers (like the Amazon Kindle).

• Netbooks are so cheap, you can almost look at them as disposable computers. With sizes around 10 inches, they almost fit in your pocket. Enough memory and storage to perform basic computing tasks, you can almost get away with using nothing but a Netbook. There are plenty of hacks out there to help you find all the online services you could need, for free, or very cheap.


• Smart Mobile Devices, the one device people are never more than a few feet away from these days, will really start to change the mobile computing landscape this next year. Retailers and web site that sell products, really need to step up to the plate and offer mobile versions of their site, with complete e-commerce. This technology is available now, it just needs to be implemented. Don’t miss this huge opportunity.


• eBook Readers like the Kindle have come on the market very strong. The Kindle isn’t the only player, in fact I don’t care for the physical device, but I am very excited about their iPhone and PC software versions. Other players in this market will need to catch up.

While smaller devices should increase their market share in the coming year, there is a lot of infrastructure that needs to catch up. One of those is e-commerce and micro payments which I’ll cover in another part of this series.

Another issue is always on Internet access. Today you can get 3G wireless Internet access on Smart Mobile devices, PC or phone, but at a hefty cost. More and more places are offering free or cheap Internet access, like the local coffee shop or library.

read more...

Amazon Adds Media Streaming, Spot Instances, and VPC Cloud Services

Amazon AWS just keeps getting better and better. Today the company announced three new services to it’s AWS product line.

Amazon CloudFront Streaming
This new services gives you a world class media server in the cloud. You can now stream media files, audio and video, from a server using Adobe Flash Media Server. As with all Amazon AWS services, this is a pay for what you use, no upfront costs to start and no minimums.

CloudFront puts your files on the networks edge, delivering your content quicker, which is a great benefit when streaming audio or video files. No need to spend thousands on hardware and software.

Amazon EC2 Spot Instances
This is an interesting concept, your basically given the opportunity to bid on unused EC2 capacity. Minimum prices are set for the unused capacity, called a Spot Price, and as long as your bid doesn’t exceed that Spot Price, you can continue to use the service. I’m probably not doing it justice here, so read more about it.

Because this service may not be available for an extended period of time, suggested uses for this option would be video processing and conversion, processing research data, or modeling or analyzing data. There is some risk for data loss when using EC2 servers in this manner. You will need to make sure your price is high enough that your instance isn’t turned off in the middle of processing data.

Amazon VPC Unlimited Public Beta
This is probably the most exciting feature of the three. VPC stands for Virtual Private Cloud (similar to Virtual Private Network or VPN). It’s a standard used by companies allowing users and networks to connect with each other securely. Now the cool part. You can extend your current companies IT infrastructure into isolated Amazon compute resources via VPC, instantly adding secure private capacity to your existing infrastructure. You can also use your existing management tools to safeguard the server while on your network.

This is a hot new feature. It’s worth taking some time to review the options. If your organization often meets or exceeds existing resources, this could be an incredibly cost effective option to increase capacity, and maintain total control as if the servers were on your own network.

read more...

Welcome DigitalThom Subscribers

Welcome to those of you who had been subscribed to my digitalthom site. Lot’s of nifty stuff going on here, more to come.

I really wanted to write more on this post, but it just isn’t going to happen.

read more...

KnockingLive Is A Killer iPhone App In 2009

[... I had written about two thirds of this post on my iPhone using the WordPress app, while I was sitting at the bar in a Chilis restaurant. I saved the post as a draft, but when I tried to reload the post to finish, all the content was gone. All of it. This is the second or third time the WordPress app for the iPhone has failed me. I won't make that mistake again. I'm finding something else. Is there something else? Evernote?]

The killer iPhone apps just keep getting better and better. Yesterday I introduced you to the Ustream Broadcaster iPhone application. Today it's KnockingLive. The KnockingLive's approach is a little different. It uses the same technology to capture video, the iPhones camera view, but adds the ability to share video with a specific user or users. That's right, you can stream private video to other iPhone users. And the other users even get a "knock knock" on their phone when you want to share something.

There is also an incredible sister app that allows you to share photos, or albums, and the receiving phone can choose to save the photos to their local phone. Wow. I'll about this one next.

One thing this company has done is create a website that shows you how to use the features in several scenarios via videos. Very cool.

read more...

UStream Broadcaster Killer iPhone App In 2009

I've had the UStream Broadcaster iPhone application for one day and I am calling it the best application of 2009. Why? Because my iPhone 3G doesn't have a video camera, but UStream has managed to over come that by streaming what you see out of the camera before you take a snapshot. Basically streaming the looking glass.

Here are a few screen shots

If you notice the above image, you can send a link of the video to Twitter and Facebook, and also upload directly to YouTube.

Streaming isn't too bad. I watched a stream my brother was broadcasting, and the quality wasn't too bad.

I'm marking this app as one of the Killer Apps all iPhone owners should have. And best of all, it's free!

read more...

My Business Wish List For 2010

I read Chris Brogans list the other day, and since I want to be like Chris, I just had to create my own list. I like that he has actual measurable goals. Things that you can so yes I did that, or no I missed the mark on that one. The one thing I regret not having completed this year, and one I promised Jason Alba I would complete, was writing one, if not two, books. I have some of one book written, but that doesn’t mean jack. So here it goes.

My Business Plans For 2010:

• For PressDev, I want to create new site tells the story much better. I’ve been wire framing something, but now it’s time to implement.
• I want more of my contacts to know and understand what my company does. I want to understand better what my company does.
• I want to bring several new business sites online. There is a small window of opportunity here, I need to strike fast.
• I want to publish at least 3 books under the Complete Geek Guide To: title.
• I want to finish my WordPress Book, I’m Using WordPress, Now What???
• Then I want to write more vertical books on Enterprise Content Management Systems.
• I want to help more people put on community driven events, like WordCamps and PodCamps.
• I want to blog more, and use Twitter and Facebook more strategically.

My Business Wish List For 2010

• I want to speak at more events next year. Do you need someone to speak on WordPress or Podcasting, contact me.
• I want to do less coding and more strategic planning and solution architecting. I have 20+ years in the IT field, it’s not my first rodeo.
• I want to read more.
• I want to create more video content.
• I want to stop using all the excuses that keep me from going where I want to go.

These are just some of the things I want and hope to accomplish in 2010. Most importantly, I want to diversify by creating multiple streams of income. Having all your eggs in one basket can cause some serious problems, as I am finding out right now.

read more...

Please Pitch Me A Win Win Venture

In my post yesterday, I asked that you not pitch me one sided ventures. Today, I’m asking you to pitch me win win ventures.

Let me start by saying, lot’s of programmers, designers, and other freelancers, are looking for great projects. They want to be part of something as big and bad as you do. Let’s work together to make that happen. I love bootstrapping. It’s the fastest way to get a company off the ground. Synergy, and a good plan, can overcome most obstacles.

I love exploring new ideas. A few weeks ago I attended the Kynetx Impact Conference, and the ideas were flowing all around me. Everyone seemed to have some idea how they could leverage the Kynetx API. I heard some excellent ideas. I even had one. It didn’t turn out to be something Kynetx was suited for, but I was encouraged to explore my idea thoroughly.

I can always get a sense of how good an idea I have when I run it by a few of my good friends. When they give me the “huh, that sounds interesting” response, I know I haven’t communicated my idea well enough, or it totally sucks and I need to go back to the drawing board.

I’ll use an example of someone pitching me an idea, and how they were successful at getting me on board. It started very out innocent. We met for a lunch. We talked about the idea, we sketched some things on paper, we talked about the holes, we talked about the market, we talked about the competitors. We really didn’t talk much about a product. We talked about a vision and an idea.

Then we met a few days later, this time with the understanding we would discuss a project. After about twenty minutes of hearing the enthusiasm, the passion, the commitment this person has made in getting his project off the ground, I was sold. I would have done just about anything he asked. He even eked out a prototype on his own. Rudimentary as it was, I could tell he had put a lot of thought into it.

I would love to hear your ideas. I would love to help you get those ideas off the ground. I would be glad to connect you with people who have the means and ability to rock your project. I’m committed to helping others succeed. Because when you succeed, I succeed.

read more...

Please Don’t Pitch Me A One Sided Venture

What is a one sided venture? It goes like this:

I understand you’re are a programmer? Well, I have this great idea for a product, it will be the next killer app, all I need you to do is sign this NDA, write a few thousand lines of code, and take a five percent equity stake in the company. I’ll do the rest.

That is a one sided venture. Why? Because the programmer is doing all the work, for air, and hoping you can do your job; sell the product to investors or customers.

I get this type of proposal at least once a week, if not more. I’m sure there are many projects that have had success with this model. But for the one that succeeds, thousands never make it off the floor.

I would love to have someone pitch me a venture where I’m offered compensation up front for the work I do, AND a stake in the company. Then everyone has skin in the game. Why do people think programmers should take such a risk? Show me you’ve got something invested in the venture besides the idea. Those are cheap, and I hear hundreds of ideas a year. For heaven sakes, I have hundreds of ideas.

That brings me to non disclosure agreements, or NDA’s. If I can get away without signing one, I will. When a lawyer tells you not to discuss your idea with anyone until they sign the NDA, they are smoking crack. Asking me to sign an NDA really tells me the idea isn’t that solid, or you think you’re the only one on the planet with the idea, which of course probably isn’t true. If not signing an NDA keeps me from accepting a project, most of the time it’s ok with me.

Look, if I had time to steal ideas, you would already know that about me before we spoke, which means you wouldn’t be talking with me in the first place. And if it came right down to me signing one, I would probably ask you to sign an agreement giving me full and exclusive rights to any code written. Seems only fair no?

All I’m asking is if you’re in the market for a freelancer to help get your project off the ground, don’t go in expecting they will fall all over themselves to help you, for free. Use some common sense. Show us that you are serious about the product and business. We’ll play ball if the venture seems legit, and you have a proven track record too.

In full disclosure, I’ve excepted work on speculation in the past, but I’ve always tried to give something tangible back in return. I would never expect to get something for free, and use it in a project I am making money on.

[off my soap box, let the flames begin]

read more...

Looks Like Fancy Commenting Systems Don’t Rule

Over the past week I have been running a poll asking what WordPress commenting systems people like. The options were Disqus, IntenseDebate, Native – built in, or None. Here is how it broke down:

• 59% of respondents preferred native commenting to a third party system.
• 25% of respondents preferred Disqus.
• 16% of respondents preferred IntenseDebate.

These are completely un-scientific results. I’ll continue to run the poll to see if I can get more results, and I’ll update this post, or if the overall results change, I’ll write up something new.

What I find interesting is those who answered picked the native commenting system. Some of the things I would like to know is why? With the third party commenting systems providing log-ins for Facebook, Twitter, OpenID and others, the appeal to use these Social Network links doesn’t seem to be a draw.

I don’t particularly care one way or the other what commenting systems people use. I have Disqus installed on this blog, if for no other reason than I like being able to track and manage my comments on this and other sites who use Disqus.

Here’s a thought though. It would be cool to use a Gravatar type system, where your comments are tied to your email address, pinged back to a service, and then you can manage and track your comments on a wider range of sites.

My friend Scott Lemon (@humancell) also suggested another commenting system called Echo, you get more information on it here http://js-kit.com/.

If you would like to participate in my poll, please check it out here http://ow.ly/Hxj1.

read more...

Vooks Will Crush eBooks

I paid for and downloaded my first Vook, Crush It!, an ebook with embeded digital media, like videos.

The funny thing is I already own the physical Crush It! book, and have read it twice. But the added value of watching videos from Gary Vanerchuk, which gives the book enormous value.

I would really like to see Vooks available for all mobile platforms. You can buy a Vook for the computer desktop, which is still pretty cool, and watching the videos is much nicer on a large screen.

Vooks will crush eBooks. Once authors and publishers see the possibilities Vooks have over eBooks, value will increase for the reader and drive more profits to the author and publisher.

read more...

WordPress Releases New iPhone App

This post is really a test using the new WordPress iPhone App, http://iphone.wordpress.org, version 2.1. I really want to test the picture upload feature.

You do have the ability to manage comments, but if you use a comment plugin system like Disqus, you can't moderate those comments.

I do like that you can create pages with this tool. I also like that I can manage multiple blogs.

I don't like that I can't insert a place holder god a photo, so I have no idea how the format will look. And how do create a linked word? Doesn't seem exist.

This is a great tool for creating quick, non-complicated posts.

read more...