My Take On 2010 Technology Predictions OS Wars

In my first post I talked about the platform wars, today I want to talk about the Operating Systems (OS) Wars.

There are really only three operation systems on the market people will generally know; Microsoft Windows, Apple Mac OS X, and Linux. There are a couple of operating systems that are getting some buzz, but most people don't know they are using them, or don't recognize the fact they are operating systems. These are mobile or light weight OS's, like Google's Chrome OS, Android, Windows Mobile, iPhone, and Palm Pre.

Desktop Operating Systems
Hands down the winner will remain the Windows, specifically, Windows 7. Personally I've been using Windows 7 for a few months now, written several blog posts on it, and can say it's just as stable as Windows XP. Sorry non-windows fan boys, but it is.

Next up will continue to be Apple's Mc OS X. The real issue most people have with the Mac OS is that it will only run on Apple hardware. Many have tried, some have succeeded, but most fail to run the Mac OS on anything other than an Apple computer. The cost for Apple computers typically keeps the average user from purchasing, and so never get an opportunity to use Mac OS X. Snow Leopard, the latest version, 1.6, is a fantastic operating system. It has all the bells and whistles you could want. But at least in 2010, it will stay behind Windows, and I don't think Apple cares one bit.

Finally we have Linux. A real geek operating system. This system isn't for the faint at heart. While distros (that's what a version of Linux is called, a distro, or distribution package) from Ubuntu and Red Hat slip in consumer features such as a graphical user interface, pre loaded applications, and the ability to manage various hardware features, you still have to have some technical understand of computers, and how to use command line tools.

Personally, I like Linux. I think it's a solid operating system that stands up to the most rigorous user. But in the coming year for desktop operating systems, Windows 7 will take even a wider market share.

Mobile Operating Systems
As I stated above, several new mobile operating systems will make some waves. I know a lot of geeky friends will want the Google phone to take over the world, it just won't. There needs to be a lot of baking before that phone will make a huge dent. You will see lot's of hype, but just as the iPhone hasn't succeeded in world domination, neither will the Google phone. But it will be cool to see what happens. What I'm hoping Nexus One does, with it's unlocked phone (meaning it's not keyed to any service provider) is to push the major manufactures to lower their prices for unlocked phones. People want choices, which is what Nexus One will give them. That will be fun to watch.

The net result of the OS War in 2010 will be negligible. Operating systems have become boring. As long as it's stable, doesn't require continual reboots, market shares will remain the same. Companies who produce operating systems make a huge capitol investment, and it takes several years, if ever, to recoup their costs. The average consumer is also averse to change. Updates are considered to be an annoyance, imagine having to upgrade the entire OS every couple of weeks.

I think the next big thing for operating systems will be slimmed down versions built specifically for an application. Linux does this, Chrome could do this. This will be the disruptive play; targeting hardware and applications. It's happening now I understand, but it will get even more specific over the next year or two.