Jesse Stay wrote a piece for Louis Grey where he asks if Sundance can do for Qik what SXSW did for Twitter. I say no. I'm not saying Qik isn't an important or impressive technology, I'm simply saying Qik doesn't have the reach Twitter did, and therefore won't have as big an impact.
Here are my reasons. Qik is only supported by a small amount of handsets, unlike Twitter, which supports SMS and the mobile web. If I can't get to the content easily, or produce content easily, I'm not going to use it, and I don't think others will either. Most people will have to be logged into a computer in order to see any of the videos created, and that diminishes the purpose of a mobile social tool.
The next issue is technology and infrastructure. Many of today's handsets don't have internet access, and if they do it's not fast enough to handle streaming video. Again this leaves out a vast majority of mobile device owners who can't participate with their mobile device. I realize you can post a link to the Qik video, but I must be at my desktop to view it.
Next I think there is quality problem. I would assume because the amount of data being transfered the compression gives mobile video streaming really poor quality, sometimes unwatchable. For example, when Apple released the iPhone 3G, Jesse was at the Salt Lake City Apple store recording with Qik, but the quality was so bad it was almost impossible to follow. Nothing Jesse did, it was the technology.
I follow Robert Scoble, who is always Qik'ing video where ever he goes. When I'm logged in to my PC, I like to see what he's up to. Qik is great for recording video and sharing on the net, but so is YouTube, and it has a farther reaching affect. If you're lucky enough to have a handset that gives you this power, have fun. For those that don't, we'll have to wait for something truly revolutionary.
Maybe I'm wrong about the lack of wide spread use. But I don't think there are enough techie types at Sundance to give Qik nearly the thrust SXSW gave Tiwtter.
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You are absolutely right. Current mobile hardware doesn't lend its self to the nature of Qik. The concept is cool, but YouTube is a better fit. A good wordpress plugin/app + youtube combo will serve better.
ReplyDeleteLive streaming from a cell phone is still just not practicle. Good post.
Thom -
ReplyDeleteI like the new design. Looks great.
Thom, I'm glad to see you blogging again. First of all, there are only 13 million iPhone users worldwide. Twitter didn't spread because of the iPhone. There are 3 *billion* total cellphones worldwide, and compared to the phones Qik supports I'd say there are still fewer iPhones than the number of phones Qik supports.
ReplyDeleteSecond, you mention Scoble using Qik. He uses Qik on a Nokia to stream - right now there are still more Nokias than iPhones worldwide.
Third, related to my quality at the Apple store, I was streaming on a hacked, v.1 iPhone on Edge there. I've used Qik on my 3G and the quality is night and day difference on the 3G. And let's not forget to mention all the quality problems Twitter had in their early days.
I'm not saying this to say Qik will be Twitter. Qik != Twitter. However I do think that Sundance may have been the SXSW moment for Qik similar to how SXSW was for Twitter. I think that's a proud moment for Utah, and that technologists and entrepreneurs can feel comfortable enough to come out here and promote their product. And regarding reach, there's still plenty of reach for Qik - only an extremely small percentage of phones don't support the service. And like Twitter, I predict Qik won't always be a mobile-only service.
The fact is over 100,000 people signed up for Qik at Sundance - that's a *huge* number! This news isn't necessarily about that number though - it's about how a Utah-based festival had such a strong affect on a Web 2.0 company. I think we should embrace, and promote that.
Thanks Russ. Been working on it for a while.
ReplyDeleteI agree Qik won't be Twitter. Not really apples to apples, right? But even your numbers above validate my point, out of the 3 billion handsets worldwide, a very very small majority have the capability to use Qik, let alone consume the Qik video. It's not about the iPhone, it's about the 2.5 billion phones that don't have the capability to stream video.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure how you can say only a small amount of phones don't support the service? I really think its the other way around, only a small percentage of phones can support Qik.
I also agree trying to stream video over Edge is nothing compared to 3G, at least its watchable. But the fact is, not everyone has 3G. For instance, in salt Lake City, I don't think T-Mobile offers 3G, and probably won't for a while. I had a T-Mobile phone for the past 8 years, and I was pretty disappointed in its capabilities. All of my family are on T-Mobile, mostly because of cost.
when you say signed up for Qik, they signed up for an account, doesn't mean they can actually stream video from their phone. I don't want to always be a consumer, I want to be a player, I want the social aspect of the tool.
It's possible that events like Sundance will increase the visibility of a Qik type of service, but it won't be this year. Maybe next, maybe later.
Oh, and I'm glad to be back in the fray. Kinda of fun eh?
ReplyDeleteOh I understand you were speculating, and my post is an answer to your question. I don't think Sundance will have as big an impact on Qik as SXSW had on Twitter. But I guess we'll see. If it does, I'm glad for it. Pushing this technology is the only way to create competitors and improve the overall infrastructure. That I agree with.
ReplyDeleteYou are absolutely right. Current mobile hardware doesn't lend its self to the nature of Qik. The concept is cool, but YouTube is a better fit. A good wordpress plugin/app + youtube combo will serve better.
ReplyDeleteLive streaming from a cell phone is still just not practicle. Good post.
Thom -
ReplyDeleteI like the new design. Looks great.
Thom, I'm glad to see you blogging again. First of all, there are only 13 million iPhone users worldwide. Twitter didn't spread because of the iPhone. There are 3 *billion* total cellphones worldwide, and compared to the phones Qik supports I'd say there are still fewer iPhones than the number of phones Qik supports.
ReplyDeleteSecond, you mention Scoble using Qik. He uses Qik on a Nokia to stream - right now there are still more Nokias than iPhones worldwide.
Third, related to my quality at the Apple store, I was streaming on a hacked, v.1 iPhone on Edge there. I've used Qik on my 3G and the quality is night and day difference on the 3G. And let's not forget to mention all the quality problems Twitter had in their early days.
I'm not saying this to say Qik will be Twitter. Qik != Twitter. However I do think that Sundance may have been the SXSW moment for Qik similar to how SXSW was for Twitter. I think that's a proud moment for Utah, and that technologists and entrepreneurs can feel comfortable enough to come out here and promote their product. And regarding reach, there's still plenty of reach for Qik - only an extremely small percentage of phones don't support the service. And like Twitter, I predict Qik won't always be a mobile-only service.
The fact is over 100,000 people signed up for Qik at Sundance - that's a *huge* number! This news isn't necessarily about that number though - it's about how a Utah-based festival had such a strong affect on a Web 2.0 company. I think we should embrace, and promote that.
I don't get how you can't say they are experiencing massive growth - they
ReplyDeleteadded 100,000 users in a single day at Sundance! The question becomes will
that continue - I wasn't speculating that. I was posing the question.
Thanks Russ. Been working on it for a while.
ReplyDeleteI think live video will explode this year. I don't know if Qik will be the
ReplyDeletemechanism to deliver that. I do think Ustream has a very large possibility
to be that player.
Oh, and I'm glad to be back in the fray. Kinda of fun eh?
ReplyDeleteOh I understand you were speculating, and my post is an answer to your question. I don't think Sundance will have as big an impact on Qik as SXSW had on Twitter. But I guess we'll see. If it does, I'm glad for it. Pushing this technology is the only way to create competitors and improve the overall infrastructure. That I agree with.
ReplyDelete